Weather

Very dark over the horizon, Busselton and the Cape. On the radar Bunbury is in a bit of a clear hole for now but the wind suggests that we might get rained on soon.

The tide is really high, lapping at the dunes around Juniors and the wind from the NW. There is the some sideways wave action but it would be hard to catch and pretty shifty. If you're keen and quick you could probably pick up the odd one but it will be hard work.

Swell - 0.36 @ 13
Sea - north 0.90
Wind - NNE 12-20 kmh

Cyclone Swell ?

Coastalwatch.com are talking up a northerly swell from TC Narelle for this afternoon but it does seem to be showing on the buoys. There is apparently a decent south swell as well and they are counteracting each other.

The Naturaliste buoy is 2.9 but coming down and the harbour buoy is 0.46 at 12 seconds with seas from the west at 0.55.

I'm taking the Kelvinator and the belly board to get wet anyway. Its 29 degrees and 74% humidity so any wave is just a bonus. I looked 20 minutes ago and there isn't much.

Click here to see the Coastwatch TC Narelle forecast.

And while you're there click here to see Taj at North Point

Swell in the water

The forecast has jumped to 5 to 6 metres tonight dropping slowly tomorrow. The Naturaliste buoy is 4.92 on one measure and over 6 on the graph. Bunbury harbour is 0.9 at 14 seconds.

Tomorrow morning is meant to be offshore. With this much swell it would be worth a trip south despite the holiday crowds as every where will be firing. Bunbury will depend on how much swell the banks and reef can hold.

Long beach

Very very low tide today. Plenty of rocks sticking up everywhere and shallow banks.

There is still some swell in the water with a decent period. The wind has a lot of south in it making the waves just a little soft. The forecast is for it to swing SE this evening so with a rising tide there might be a LAGO.

Only a SUPer out at the moment. Lots of close outs but if you picked the right one and missed the rocks you could have a fun session.

0.68 @ 15

Motion

There is a chunky new swell in the water this morning. Lots of water moving around but not very surfable at this stage although there is the odd medium one between close outs.

If you read this early enough it would be worth a quick run south. Coastalwatch is calling 10+ with offshores.

Naturaliste has gone from two metres at lunch time yesterday to almost four at the moment. Its jumped nearly a metre since midnight and looks like it might still be going up. Stormsurf has a big blob of 20' + swell on it model.

The harbour buoy is 0.88 with a long 14 second period.

Offshore

It was sort of offshore late this arvo. Not surfable but a change from the smashing we got from late Thursday.

Yesterday was ridiculous. The winds were over 30 kph for the whole day and gusting around 50 hour after hour. The wind peaked at 82 kph at 2.30 and 74 at 7.30 pm.  At 7.00 am this morning the winds stopped gusting over 50 kph and it wasn't till 4.00 pm that gust finally fell consistently below 30 kph.

Swell wise it peaked at around 1.5 metres but combined with the big seas it hit 2.75 metres for a while. Even deep inside the harbour was rocking. The Naturaliste buoy peaked over five.

Tomorrow is forecast as being offshore in the morning but with a sea breeze around noon. I wouldn't think it would be very good but it might be work a quick look at the Capel Cut and maybe Binningup. The boogers should add the Bay to that list.

We'll see !


1.05 @ 13

Lumpy

Fair bit of swell floating around and glassy conditions.

The tide and the reef and the banks are really shallow so the size is wasted. Not that it really matters because when the wind comes in it will be southerly anyway.

The Smith's webcam shows plenty of swell down south but the wind is already into it.

Big 0.91 @ 13 locally. Naturaliste 3.26 @ 12

Calm

No real wind since midnight and what there is now is offshore. But there isn't much swell getting in and  the tide is really low.

The harbour buoy has the swell direction as west but the Naturaliste buoy has it very south. There are a few little runners at BP with a couple of banks up and down the beach and a left at Juniors but it doesn't seem to have much push.

If you're reading this I'm guessing you're not down south already so if you really want to get wet and you have a small wave board it could be worth the paddle when it warms up.

0.49 @ 12

Update

The Wall is a no-go, no enough swell and the wind straight on to it.

The conditions are getting worse by the minute but the blue sky seems to be tempting some to at least try.

Swell heading down and seas up - 0.72 @ 11 and a bit, winds NNE and gusting to 29 kmh (up from 9 in the last two hours).

Mush

Got a sneaky day off and was hoping for a sneaky surf. Nearly !!!!

There is a building swell in the water but no banks and the reef isn't doing it either. The wind has swung onshore. Its light but not helping anything.

I think I need to trek off to the Bay over the weekend to see if there are any banks forming there as the swell direction is pretty good. Not holding my breath though as it hasn't worked for two years.

0.90 at 14 from the west but with a south west swell (3.38 at Naturaliste) just showing.

Another write off weekend

Onshore and crappy. Yet another weekend with no wave.

0.60 at 16 - westerly swell

Here it comes again

Another front on the way tomorrow with damaging winds. Good job I didn't put the outdoor furniture back after the last one.

Bit of a pre-front northerly wave for those who were quick this afternoon. I saw a guy take a clean head height drop on what looked like the best peak in front of the surf club.

The sea and swell have both swung north west and are climbing rapidly.  The sea is 1.12 and the swell 0.73. The swell period has dropped four seconds since midday and is sitting on 10.

There are some weird blobs on the Stormsurf wave models for the next week or so. It has a 30 foot swell hitting Marges in 72 hours with Perth getting 18 - 20. Forty seven feet of swell is passing the south coast. There are then two follow up 15 to 20 foot swells in the following few days

The models can be a bit funky and this is super unusual

WEATHER SITUATION
A cold front moving over the area during Tuesday is likely to cause WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS to 100 kilometres per hour that could result in DAMAGE TO HOMES
AND PROPERTY. In isolated areas DANGEROUS GUSTS in excess of 125 kilometres per
hour could cause SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION TO HOMES AND PROPERTY.
DAMAGING winds are likely to develop about the Capes early on Tuesday morning
and extend to remaining parts later in the morning. Thunderstorms are also
possible.

Higher than normal tides may result in flooding of low-lying coastal areas in
the Geographe Bay area, including Busselton and Dunsborough, on Tuesday morning.

This is typical weather for this time of year.

Well !

What a storm. Plenty of trees still down and lots of people without power.

The period between 1 pm and 4 pm was the worse, up to 111 kmh winds and 4 mm of rain. The harbour buoys both registered gusts in the 50 knot range and beacon ten, which is well inside Koombana Bay hit over 0.44 metres. It usually its below 0.1.

Beacon 10 - inside Koombana Bay

This wasn't a standard winter front but a tropical low (those things that form cyclones up higher in summer) The barometric pressure dropped massively and suddenly as the the low past over us. It went from a fairly low for us 1005 at 6.00 am to under 985 about 1.00 ish. This is lower than many cyclones.

Pressure drops out - wind goes up

Surf wise tomorrow looks crap, howling westerlies, Tuesday is meant to be worse than today and Wednesday westerlies again in the 30 knot plus range.

Swells up

but its crap.

1.06 in the harbour but cold on shores all day and lowish tides. No waves.

Might be bad for a few days but again look for the windows where it will be ok

I wonder

On days like today what Bunbury would be like if a massive clean swell hit. There are some huge waves capping and breaking way out and some big walls amongst the carnage.

The harbour buoy is 1.19 metres and Naturaliste is just a touch under six. Winds have been gusting in the high 30 kph since early this morning and as high as 50 at times. Augusta is being smashed as usual with winds getting close to double our worst.

Wouldn't be planning on getting wet for a few days (excluding getting caught in the rain). Neither Fraggles or the wall have decent banks yet but this front will help.

Over

Wind is in but there are still a couple of fun ones for the two grooms out. I wouldn't bother unless you really need a surf.

Probably if you were out really early it was fun and light offshore but who knows.

Tomorrow looks ok, swell increasing to 3 metres and SSE winds. The banks have shuffled around so there might be a little shape.

Swell 0.52 @ 12. Naturaliste 2.7 at 12.

Swell

Plenty of swell around and off shores this morning. I didn't want to torture myself by checking it on the way to work but I suspect it was pretty messy with the wonky swell and small wave banks. I could have been wrong but it kept my sanity at work.

I wandered around my office and cruelly told one of the blokes, who is a bit of a big wave hell man, that Coastalwatch had Marges as 10 foot. He couldn't jump on the swell cams fast enough but we both felt a little better as it was a decent size but a bit drunk looking. We did see one guy get fully pitted at the little bank south of Smith reef but it was crowded and fluky.

Swell is still up around the 0.7 mark and holding steady. The forecast if for it to slowly ease over the next couple of days but with south west winds. First thing Saturday might be ok or the trip down south for a sheltered spot or two (hopefully the crowd will be surfed out).

I don't want to go to work !

I just want to sit inside and watch Bells. Round one has finished and Taj is in the water in his second round heat. He has already racked up a high eight on his first wave in the first few minutes.

The waves are clean and offshore but can be a little difficult to surf. Which is the opposite of here where it is massive and onshore. The six metre swell is already showing on the Naturaliste Buoy and still rising. Locally its 1.19 which is massive for the channel.

There will be waves on the Dunsborough side of the cape and it will help set some banks. However with the recent shark attacks and sightings many people will be a bit reluctant to venture out.

It looks like a few have been out at the Wall over the last couple of days and I although I haven't looked myself I suspect that it might have been ok. It would depend a little on the sand.

Surf : Big
Swell : 1.19 at 15 seconds
Wind : howling WNW
Quality : zip
Desperation level : as big as the swell
Recommendation : watch Bells on FuelTV or go to work/school

Bookends

Saw the sun rise and set from the beach today. Sitting out the back you could look out to sea to a light golden surface or back at the beach and a full moon and pink water.

The swell and favourable winds have hung around all day although the tide is a bit iffy.

There was a bit of a crowd this afternoon but by 6.00 pm when I got there it was only me at Juniors and a couple on the reef.

There were some corners in between the closeouts. The bank is a bit suss and the takeoff was pretty shallow. There were some scary looking boils on each wave.

The swell hit 0.7 in the channel and 3 metres for a few hours at Naturaliste. But it's not meant to be around for long and the weekend looks hot and flat.

Draining

The flat spell continues. No swell and no breeze to either make some or give some wind wave release. The swell buoy has been out of action for a few days but would be pretty straight lined.

There is a glimmer with the passing of a weak front tomorrow. The swell is meant to rise to 2.5 metres but the winds will be onshore. We'll just need to hold our breath and wait.