Betting

Got asked today by a guy with some money to bet for his betting club who to put the cash on the win the Quikie Pro. My answer Taj (at $11) or Josh Kerr (at $26).

Taj is the defending champ and has won four times (in the Quikie and QS Breaka) at Snapper over the last couple of years. Surely he has to catch a break and win a world title soon.

Kerr is the total package and now has a wiser head. If the waves are at Kirra you can write off all the goofies and the power face surfers so Kerr will come into his own.

There's some pretty good odds, even the favourite Kelly Slater is paying $5.50. I think Fanning is a bit over rated at $7 and the third line of betting. Jordy Smith at $10 is strange. Its been a few years since he was on his game and he's never won here. Seabass Zeitz is $41 in his first world tour event above people like Michel Bourez, Bede Durbrige and both Hopgoods, all people with wins and years of experience on the world tour ?

I'm sure I have jinxed my picks but what can you do.

Round four finally goes big

The promises of high performance round four heats was finally met last night. With sets around head height and runners both ways there were plenty of big hacks and airs. Unfortunately the judging continues to baffle everyone and feed the conspiracy theorists (see this post from philosurfical). There seems to be bonus points given to the top 10 (except Bede Durbridge). The judges have obviously decided that anyone can do an air but not everyone can do a reo. Even I can do a reo (every now and then) but I'm will never do an air (on purpose).

Taj was fairly beaten by Adriano de Souza with both going to the air. Julian Wilson couldn't beat Parko's re-entries with am air where he switched the board around, landed surfed goofy, switched back and threw and air reverse. Owen Wright beat John Florence who surfed well in his maiden event (he made the tour due to Yaden Nicols broken leg).

The internet rumours are that the event will finish tonight as the forecast if for a dropping swell.

Head to the website and watch the heats on demand. They have built on the format from the Quikie Pro so you can watch entire heats or any of the scoring waves. You can also select your favourite surfer or only waves over a certain score. And unlike the Quikie it actually works and streams nicely.

UPCOMING HURLEY PRO AT TRESTLES ROUND 5 MATCH-UPS:
Heat 1: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Heitor Alves (BRA)
Heat 2: Josh Kerr (AUS) vs. Jeremy Flores (FRA)
Heat 3: Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Mick Fanning (AUS)
Heat 4: Julian Wilson (AUS) vs. Adrian Buchan (AUS)

HURLEY PRO AT TRESTLES ROUND 4 RESULTS:
Heat 1: Adriano de Souza (BRA) 16.33, Taj Burrow (AUS) 15.93, Jeremy Flores (FRA) 12.23
Heat 2: Kelly Slater (USA) 15.90, Josh Kerr (AUS) 12.60, Heitor Alves (BRA) 11.77
Heat 3: Owen Wright (AUS) 16.73, Damien Hobgood (USA) 15.20, Adrian Buchan (AUS) 12.46
Heat 4: Joel Parkinson (AUS) 18.06, Julian Wilson (AUS) 17.77, Mick Fanning (AUS) 15.50

HURLEY PRO AT TRESTLES ROUND 3 RESULTS:
Heat 1: Taj Burrow (AUS) 15.50 def. Kai Otton (AUS) 12.97
Heat 2: Adriano de Souza (BRA) 15.50 def. Jadson Andre (BRA) 13.10
Heat 3: Jeremy Flores (FRA) 10.27 def. Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) 9.57
Heat 4: Heitor Alves (BRA) 11.63 def. Michel Bourez (PYF) 11.43
Heat 5: Josh Kerr (AUS) 12.33 def. Gabriel Medina (BRA) 11.83
Heat 6: Kelly Slater (USA) 17.64 def. Tom Whitaker (AUS) 12.93
Heat 7: Owen Wright (AUS) 17.84 def. John Florence (HAW) 17.13
Heat 8: Damien Hobgood (USA) 14.13 def. Kieren Perrow (AUS) 8.17
Heat 9: Adrian Buchan (AUS) 15.80 def. Chris Davidson (AUS) 10.40
Heat 10: Joel Parkinson (AUS) 17.00 def. Brett Simpson (USA) 16.80
Heat 11: Julian Wilson (AUS) 14.23 def. Matt Wilkinson (AUS) 9.00
Heat 12: Mick Fanning (AUS) 14.93 def. Taylor Knox (USA) 13.17

Toooooooooooooooo big

Tahiti was too big for the third round of the Billabong Pro. A government "red alert" meant that there were restrictions on boat traffic and using the contest tower but didn't stop some tow crews.

The Billabong Pro website continued to webcast the action despite there being no contest and there were some massive and ugly waves. Even towing was very hit and miss.

Round two was run a few days ago and some big names went down. Taj, Parko and Bede all lost in round two and Julian Wilson in round three. In most heats the higher ranked surfer lost. Slater, Jordy and Fanning are still there.

Chopes isn't a very good contest venue. Despite what it looks like on video the waves don't pump constantly they come in very defined and staggered sets. Each heat will get a small number of these sets so if you blow a wave there isn't necessarily another around the corner. When waves do come through they will always barrel but not always let you get out. It is a place where you are either going to come out and get a 7+ or get pinched and get a 2. There is no in between and no building momentum. This is why there is often carnage amongst the seeds as they are just as likely to come on the bad side of this 50/50 shot as the good one.

Taj can pretty much write off his chances of winning the world title this year. I'm hoping that I will be eating these words in December but with two 25th finishes and a third round exit already he will have to hold the 17th. Not to many people have taken the lot with one of those left in their hands. On the plus side the waves at the next few contests should suit him and he will probably be re-seeded so he doesn't keep meeting Slater in the third round (especially with two events in the US to come)

Girls then boys

Round four of the Roxy Pro is in the water to be followed by round three of the Quikie.

Round two for the men was run yesterday. The only real upset was Bede Durbidge going down in the first heat to wildcard groom Matt Banting. Banting get Slater in this round.

Taj has probably the hardest heat of the round against Julian Wilson. If the waves clean up this could be the best heat of the year.

For those with access to OneHD it should be on TV otherwise check out the webcast.

Taj wins Breaka Pro again

Taj Burrow has just won the Brekka Pro in small but fun looking waves at Burleigh. A couple of linked rides puncuated with a big spinning air give him to mid sevens and the lead for most of the contest.

Parko came second mainly due to a typical Parko wave full of big smooth moves and a little spin. Bede Durbridge started strong but couldn't get the bigger scores and would be a little annoyed that Parko snuck past him at the end. Jayke Sharpe couldn't get any decent waves.

This the second year in a row that Taj has started the Aussie leg with a win in this event. Last year he backed it up with first in the Quikie Pro. He has to be considered a threat for the world title again this year if the judging finally goes for him.

The Flores/Garcia incident has made the mainstream news, thanks to some pretty ugly looking video. It now seems that a local got into a blue with Sunny's 16 year old son and wore a pretty bad beating for his stupidity. Surfing should never be a violent sport but crowds can cause blood to boil, especially if people aren't respectful, don't know the rules and are greedy.

Remember -
* one surfer per wave (DON'T DROP IN EVER)
* the surfer furtherest inside has right of way ALWAYS
* don't snake
* WAIT YOUR TURN
* just because you can catch every way doesn't mean you should. Give a few waves away
* beginners shouldn't surf with those who know what they are doing

This rules apply in Bunbury as much as Burleigh. They apply to BODY BOARDERS, mal riders, SUPs, groms, Mums, soft tops and body surfers as much as shortboarders. Play nice and go home happy.

Taj through to semis

Taj is through to a tough semi tomorrow although both semis are tough. TB is up against world tour surfers Tiago Pires and Jay "Bottle" Thompson and video star Jayke Sharp.

The second semi has Parko, Bede Durbridge and super-grom Julian Wilson against Tom Woods.

The waves have been small and onshore but contestable and if they clean up the surfing will be red hot.

The event website shows that Jeremy Flores was disqualified for some sort of physical confrontation whilst free surfing in the event area. They go on to say that Sunny Garcia is also facing a disiplinary hearing so maybe they clashed. My money would be on Sunny to win !

Round One has finished

The Rip Curl Pro Portugal ran the non-elimination round one in some pretty marginal waves at Supertubos. Taj continued his habit of winning round one heat this year (the opposite of last year) and Slater continued his habit of losing.

Round two is on at the moment in nice waves. Its probably around four foot and offshore, although the size has dropped with the tide. There are some nice long barrels and enough waves to make it fair for everyone.

So far in round two Slater won easily and Jordy is through to the next round. Dane Reynolds and Adriano DeSouza have pretty much fallen out of the race by losing their round two heats. Adriano was beaten by Dean Morrison who was the injury replacement for Bede Durbridge, who just had a baby last week.

The sun is meant to stay up until after 8 their time which will be after midnight here provided the conditions stay nice.

FuelTV are showing the event live and there is a webcast (if you can stand Jodie Cooper's commentary)

Finals at J-Bay

The Billabong Pro flows straight into its fourth day and the finals. Jordy Smith is in the water against Adriano De'Souza and with two monster airs has a 9 and a high 7.

Bede Durbridge takes on local wildcard Sean Holmes. Taj has Dane Reynolds is probably the hardest quarter final. Damo Hopgood, the last goofy in the event, then takes on Aussie rookie Adam Melling. 

With Slater out in round three and Mick in round 4 both Taj and Jordy could put themselves in a great position for the world title. They have been the standout surfers of the event so far and a bit a little margin. Both have been able to find the best waves, hunt the barrel and their lip hits are more critical and more fins out than anyone else. The difference between the top guys and the next rung down is the smoothness of their surfing. The next tier seem to always need to double pump their bottom turns where the best surfer hold their rail in one move off the bottom.

It will be an interesting day in waves that aren't great for J-Bay but obviously the forecast for the rest of the waiting period isn't good.

One down, one still going

Steph Gilmore proved once again that no one on the WCT can beat her winning the Beachly Classic at Dee Why Point. That is win three from four events with her only loss (not counting stupid round one) was against a wildcard. The next womens event is in Peru in June.

After a couple of lay days the Billabong Pro Brazil is back on in ok surf. Brazil continues to be the one place that is always crappy and below the "Dream Tour" standard. Round three and possibly round four may go today.

Taj pulls the lowest qualifier Travis Logie, who surprised everyone by actually winning a man on man heat at WCT level. Don't want to jinx TB but he should win over the worst surfer on tour. There are a few names in the strange position of being in round three. Parko has a potentially difficult heat as do anyone against a Brazil nut. Bede vs Owen Wright and Freddie P vs Flores could be good as well.

Seems that with the lay days they have been able to improve the quality of the webcast and the site now has a new twist on "heats on demand" - you make your own playlist of individual waves.

BILLABONG SANTA CATARINA PRO ROUND 3 MATCH-UPS:
Heat 1: Bobby Martinez (USA) vs. Luke Munro (AUS)
Heat 2: Damien Hobgood (USA) vs. Jadson Andre (BRA)
Heat 3: Kieren Perrow (AUS) vs. Michel Bourez (PYF)
Heat 4: Joel Parkinson (AUS) vs. Matt Wilkinson (AUS)
Heat 5: Adriano de Souza (BRA) vs. Patrick Gudauskas (USA)
Heat 6: Dane Reynolds (USA) vs. Kekoa Bacalso (HAW)
Heat 7: C.J. Hobgood (USA) vs. Tom Whitaker (AUS)
Heat 8: Taj Burrow (AUS) vs. Travis Logie (ZAF)
Heat 9: Mick Fanning (AUS) vs. Neco Padaratz (BRA)
Heat 10: Taylor Knox (USA) vs. Tiago Pires (PRT)
Heat 11: Bede Durbidge (AUS) vs. Owen Wright (AUS)
Heat 12: Fredrick Patacchia (HAW) vs. Jeremy Flores (FRA)
Heat 13: Kelly Slater (USA) vs. Tanner Gudauskas (USA)
Heat 14: Chris Davidson (AUS) vs. Daniel Ross (AUS)
Heat 15: Jordy Smith (ZAF) vs. Ben Dunn (AUS)
Heat 16: Adrian Buchan (AUS) vs. Roy Powers (HAW)

Fanning wins Search

Mick Fanning has beaten Bede Durbridge in the final of the Search in Portugal. Fanning only had to surf once after Owen Wright pulled out of the semi due to a burst ear drum sustained the day before.

Durbridge took out Parko in the other semi. Parko was not happy after his loss however on adjusted points Mick will still need finish higher at Pipe to win the World Title. Bede's loss means that he is out of the running leaving on the two Coolie Kids.

The WLT is into round 2 at the Maldives. The webcast is on and the waves look fun. Last years world champ Bonga Perkins is out but current tour leader Harley Ingelby is easily through to the next round.

Search reaches semis

The Search ran through round three and the quarters.

Taj was knocked out in round three in the last two minutes. Fanning smashed Freddie P in the same round and Tim Reyes in the quarters. Two quarter finals were close with Bede Durbridge beating Jordy Smith by less than half a point and wildcard Owen Wright beating Damo Hopgood by 0.33.

Both semis should be great if the waves cooperate.

Fuel TV will be showing the rest of the contest live and it will be streaming on the net.

Mick Wins Again

Fanning has made it two in a row beating Bede Durbrige in the final.

He had two good waves in his first three putting Bede in combo-land for most of the heat. Bede used up his full 15 waves but couldn't get more than a six.

Fanning has moved within a couple of hundred points of Parko. Parko will need to find some form to keep his lead as every result (other than a 33rd) will be a keeper while Mick is currently holding a 17th and 9th as his two lowest results.

With a few days left in the waiting period for this comp and the next in Spain not until the 5th October, Fanning be able to rest up his injured ankle.

Taj and Slater should move up but will need things to fall their way to win it all with three events left (all in left handers).